Malaysia CPO
+1.33%MYR 4,688/MT
Aug 21, 2026
91th pctl of 52-wk range
Data, statistics and AI-powered insights
Palm Oil Market Desk
Live crude palm oil benchmarks, short-term outlook, market signals and sourcing links for buyers, traders and suppliers.
Indonesia CPO
+1.51%$1,052/MT
Aug 21, 2026 modeled
Levy: $124.57/MT
Global benchmark
-0.27%$1,101/MT
Jul 2026
World Bank monthly
7-day outlook
upBullish
Move: +0.40%
49% dir. accuracy (30d)
Brent crude
+4.08%$92.5/bbl
Aug 25, 2026
30d: +4.08%
Refining margin
healthy$193/MT
Olein – CPO spread
Healthy margins
MPOB, Kemendag, World Bank, FX and POE model referencesMalaysia priceAug 21, 2026Indonesia modelAug 21, 2026MPOB monthlyJul 01, 2026BrentAug 25, 2026WeatherAug 25, 2026ForecastAug 25, 2026
Malaysia CPO trend
Full chartRecent market line with the POE 7-day outlook ahead of it — switch ranges to zoom out.
RSI-14: 78 (overbought)MACD: bullishSMA 5/20: golden cross
POE 7-day price outlook
AI price outlook
▲ 0.40%Mon 08-24
$1,157
▼ 0.30%
Tue 08-25
$1,154
▼ 0.20%
Wed 08-26
$1,154
▲ 0.00%
Thu 08-27
$1,157
▲ 0.20%
Fri 08-28
$1,160
▲ 0.30%
Mon 08-31
$1,163
▲ 0.20%
Tue 09-01
$1,165
▲ 0.20%
The model's own view. This is what it actually forecast, before any blending.
Statistical range — 80%
±1.5% by day 7Mon 08-24
$1,154–$1,167
±0.6% band
Tue 08-25
$1,151–$1,169
±0.8%
Wed 08-26
$1,149–$1,171
±1.0%
Thu 08-27
$1,147–$1,173
±1.1%
Fri 08-28
$1,146–$1,175
±1.2%
Mon 08-31
$1,144–$1,176
±1.4%
Tue 09-01
$1,143–$1,177
±1.5%
Where the price very likely lands — direction deliberately not stated, because no statistical rule tested could call it. The band assumes recent volatility persists; sized so roughly 4 in 5 outcomes fall inside, and measured at 82% over 524 past windows.
Published ▲ 0.40% over 7 days from the last actual close ($1,160, 08-21) — the two above blended 100/0. This is the figure the accuracy record scores.
The published outlook is the model's view in full — none of it is held back toward the last traded price. Scored on error alone a flat line usually wins, because the lowest-error answer for a market like this is to say nothing; that is a fact about the scoring rule, not a reason to publish silence.
Cross-market pulse
Open dashboardsThe live forces outside the price chart that can shift palm oil supply and demand.
Energyweakbullish
Brent is $92.53/bbl and +4.08% over roughly one month; firmer crude supports biodiesel feedstock economics.Weathersupply risk
Sarawak, Kalimantan show dry 7-day conditions; monitor lagged yield risk.Policydemand
Indonesia Biodiesel (B-series): B40 toward B50; Phasing in.Demandwatch
India/China demand watch: Indonesia takes on Malaysia in battle over palm oil pricing - South China Morning PostPositioningwatch
Managed money net long 98,237 contracts at 82th percentile.BOPO spreadbullish
Palm discount to soy: $489/MT — wide, strongly supports palm demand.Refining marginbullish
RBD Olein-CPO spread: $193/MT — wide, strong refining incentive.Operational insights
Near-term signals lean firm
Buyer contextEarlier cover may reduce exposure to narrowing offer validity and changing freight.
Supplier contextAvailable loading windows and clearly stated quote validity may become more relevant.
Signals to monitorEnergy, Weather, Policy are the main signals to monitor as conditions evolve.
Dates to watchPeak production season (Jul–Oct) — highest output, typically bearish pressure
Market interpretation only. Users should make their own commercial decisions.
SupplyMPOB dashboard
Production, stocks, exports, imports and FFB price.
EnergyBrent & palm linkFollow crude prices and biodiesel demand support.
WeatherENSO & rainfallMonitor growing-belt rain and production risk.
PolicyBiodiesel mandatesTrack blend programs and policy-led palm demand.
Trade Tools & Calculators
Live market spreads and practical calculators for palm oil trade.
BOPO Spread$489/MT
$489/MT
CPO $1101 vs Soy $1590 (2026-07-01)
Wide — strongly supports palm demand
Open substitutes dashboard →Brent Crude+4.1% 30d
$92.53/bbl
Aug 25, 2026
Firmer crude supports biodiesel feedstock economics
Open energy desk →Signal to shipment
Turn the market view into a sourcing decision
Move from the right palm product to a comparable landed cost and then a supplier-ready requirement without losing the market context above.
Awaiting next update — Malaysia (MPOB) last updated Aug 21, 2026. No new MPOB price since 2026-08-21 — likely a Malaysian public holiday or a pending publication. The last price is held constant until trading resumes. Next update expected Aug 26, 2026.
Malaysian crude palm oil prices
Historical World Bank benchmark data is combined with MPOB Malaysia data, FX references and POE model projections for the current market view.
Why is this different from the palm oil price on Trading Economics or Bursa? Those quote FCPO futures; this is MPOB’s official daily physical price — what cargoes actually change hands at. Futures are traded continuously by speculators and hedgers, so they carry intraday noise, position-squaring and contract-roll effects, and they sit at a premium because they price a future delivery month rather than today. A physical reference moves when real palm oil is bought, not when a trader changes their mind. If you are pricing a cargo rather than hedging one, this is the number that bears on what you pay. More in our FAQ.
AI price outlook · experimentalgenerated Aug 25, 2026 · AI market model
This number is the model's view in full— none of it is held back toward the last traded price. It was previously damped to a tenth of that, because on average error the model loses to simply repeating today's price. That comparison is a weak test: the lowest-error answer for a market like this one is to say nothing at all, so a contest scored that way rewards silence. Expect this to be wrong more visibly than a flat line would be — and check the accuracy record, which is published either way.
↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.
CPO is at 52-week highs after five straight sessions, but RSI 78 and profit-taking headlines suggest near-term pullback/consolidation. Wide BOPO spread, B50 mandate, and El Niño supply risks limit downside, while ample July stocks and peak production cap upside. We expect a modest net decline over the next 7 days. Published path: +0.4% over 7 sessions.
AI price outlook
▲ 0.40%Mon 08-24
$1,157
▼ 0.30%
Tue 08-25
$1,154
▼ 0.20%
Wed 08-26
$1,154
▲ 0.00%
Thu 08-27
$1,157
▲ 0.20%
Fri 08-28
$1,160
▲ 0.30%
Mon 08-31
$1,163
▲ 0.20%
Tue 09-01
$1,165
▲ 0.20%
The model's own view. This is what it actually forecast, before any blending.
Statistical range — 80%
±1.5% by day 7Mon 08-24
$1,154–$1,167
±0.6% band
Tue 08-25
$1,151–$1,169
±0.8%
Wed 08-26
$1,149–$1,171
±1.0%
Thu 08-27
$1,147–$1,173
±1.1%
Fri 08-28
$1,146–$1,175
±1.2%
Mon 08-31
$1,144–$1,176
±1.4%
Tue 09-01
$1,143–$1,177
±1.5%
Where the price very likely lands — direction deliberately not stated, because no statistical rule tested could call it. The band assumes recent volatility persists; sized so roughly 4 in 5 outcomes fall inside, and measured at 82% over 524 past windows.
Published ▲ 0.40% over 7 days from the last actual close ($1,160, 08-21). This is the figure the accuracy record scores.
Scenario analysis
| Scenario | Probability | 7-day endpoint | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 35% | $1,126 (-2.96%) | Overbought RSI triggers long liquidation and profit-taking on weak crude |
| base | 35% | $1,157 (-0.30%) | Consolidation near 52-week highs with demand support but technical exhaustion |
| bull | 30% | $1,195 (+3.04%) | B50 demand and El Niño supply fears overwhelm profit-taking |
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
- 1▼RSI 78 / overbought technicals — Price above upper Bollinger Band with RSI 78 signals reversal risk within 3-5 days; profit-taking already visible in 8/24 headlines.
- 2▲BOPO spread $314/MT — Palm heavily discounted vs soybean oil, strong demand-switching support for palm.
- 3▲B50 & Indonesia export policy — Indonesia B50 phasing absorbs ~3-4M t/yr; export levy revenue projected to rise 31%, supporting medium-term demand.
- 4▼MPOB July stocks ample — Closing stocks 61% above 5-yr avg, stocks-to-use 12.5% — ample, bearish.
- 5▼Peak production season — Jul-Oct is high-output period; seasonal pressure persists despite August historically averaging +0.7%.
- 6▲El Niño ONI +1.4 — Strengthening El Niño with dry Kalimantan/Sarawak near-term creates lagged yield risk and supply tightening anticipation.
- 7▼Weak crude oil — Brent crude -3.5% 7d, and Monday CPO fell on weaker crude oil, dampening biodiesel margin sentiment.
- 8▼Weak Indonesian rupiah / pricing battle — USD/IDR 17691 and Indonesia's commodity exchange launch challenge Malaysian pricing, potentially boosting Indonesian export competitiveness.
- 9▼Crowded speculative long in soyoil — CFTC managed-money net long at 82th percentile, vulnerable to long liquidation across veg-oil complex.
- 10▲India festival demand window — Diwali buying window opens in ~26 days; India imports strong for festival season, providing demand flow despite historically neutral festival effect.
News scanned (10)
- Pungutan Ekspor Sawit Diproyeksi Tembus Rp41,22 Triliun, B50 Dorong Percepatan PSR - sawitsetara.co — sawitsetara.co, 2026-08-24
- Mandatori Biodiesel Makin Kuat Jaga Harga TBS Petani Sawit - METRORIAU.COM — METRORIAU.COM, 2026-08-24
- Sawit Makin Strategis untuk Kedaulatan Energi dan Ekonomi Nasional - olenka.id — olenka.id, 2026-08-24
- Palm oil prices fell in Malaysia on Monday - UkrAgroConsult — UkrAgroConsult, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia expects palm oil export levy revenue to rise 31% - UkrAgroConsult — UkrAgroConsult, 2026-08-24
- Indonesian Rupiah Declines Despite High Rates and Weaker US Dollar - CryptoRank — CryptoRank, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia takes on Malaysia in battle over palm oil pricing - South China Morning Post — South China Morning Post, 2026-08-24
- CPO Futures End Lower On Profit-taking, Weaker Crude Oil - BernamaBiz — BernamaBiz, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia Launches National Commodity Exchange, Challenging Malaysia's Palm Oil Pricing Dominance - finance.biggo.com — finance.biggo.com, 2026-08-24
- Penerimaan Pungutan Ekspor Sawit Diproyeksi Rp 41,22 Triliun Tahun Ini - Ikatan Konsultan Pajak Indonesia — Ikatan Konsultan Pajak Indonesia, 2026-08-23
7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. The model's view is published in full — no share of it is held back toward the last traded price.. Anchored on the 2026-08-21 close, 4 days old (MPOB publishes at D+1, not at weekends, and can run later still); the market may already have moved without us. Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote.
Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.
The next 30 days: a range, not a forecast
Where the Malaysian CPO price has an 80% historical chance of sitting by 20 September 2026, measured from every 30-day move since 27 December 2023. We do not publish a target price at this horizon; the note at the foot of this panel explains why.
$1,090-6.2%today $1,162$1,264+8.8%
- Historical windows used
- 615
- Range width
- +16.0%
- Times it has contained the price
- not yet scored
The first 30-day window has not closed yet, so there is nothing honest to report on accuracy. This figure will appear once it does, and it will be published whether it flatters us or not — the same way we publish the 7-day forecast’s scorecard.
How this is calculated, and why there is no predicted price
An 80% range for the Malaysian CPO price 30 calendar days from the 2026-08-21 close, read directly off the distribution of every 30-day move since 2023-12-27 (615 overlapping windows, roughly 29 independent). This is deliberately NOT a price prediction: at this horizon we measured three separate models — a ridge regression, a seasonal-plus-fundamentals model and a nearest-analogue model — and every one of them performed worse than simply quoting today's price, so we do not publish a target or a direction. The midpoint is the historical median move, not a forecast. Roughly one month in five should close outside this range; if that stops being true, our published coverage figure will say so.
This is not comparable to the 7-day forecast on this page.They are different models measuring different things over different horizons, and neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s. The 7-day outlook publishes a path; this publishes a range precisely because a path was not supportable at 30 days.
Sources: World Bank historical benchmark (CC BY 4.0) and MPOB Malaysia daily data. EUR/GBP/MYR views converted at daily exchange rates. Full data credits.
Indonesian crude palm oil prices
Official Kemendag monthly reference data is retained as the anchor, while POE models an indicative daily line from Malaysia MPOB data and reference ratios.
Why does this move once a month?Because it is an official reference, not a traded contract. Kemendag sets the figure monthly and it is what Indonesia’s export duty and levy are literally calculated on, so it moves on policy and physical trade rather than futures sentiment — which is what makes it a stable basis for costing a cargo. The daily line beside it is POE’s own modelled estimate between those official points.
AI price outlook · experimentalgenerated Aug 25, 2026 · AI market model
This number is the model's view in full— none of it is held back toward the last traded price. It was previously damped to a tenth of that, because on average error the model loses to simply repeating today's price. That comparison is a weak test: the lowest-error answer for a market like this one is to say nothing at all, so a contest scored that way rewards silence. Expect this to be wrong more visibly than a flat line would be — and check the accuracy record, which is published either way.
↻ Refreshed through the day as new prices and headlines arrive.
CPO is at 52-week highs after five straight sessions, but RSI 78 and profit-taking headlines suggest near-term pullback/consolidation. Wide BOPO spread, B50 mandate, and El Niño supply risks limit downside, while ample July stocks and peak production cap upside. We expect a modest net decline over the next 7 days. Published path: +0.4% over 7 sessions.
AI price outlook
▲ 0.40%Mon 08-24
$1,047
▼ 0.30%
Tue 08-25
$1,045
▼ 0.20%
Wed 08-26
$1,045
▲ 0.00%
Thu 08-27
$1,047
▲ 0.20%
Fri 08-28
$1,050
▲ 0.30%
Mon 08-31
$1,053
▲ 0.20%
Tue 09-01
$1,055
▲ 0.20%
The model's own view. This is what it actually forecast, before any blending.
Statistical range — 80%
±1.5% by day 7Mon 08-24
$1,045–$1,056
±0.6% band
Tue 08-25
$1,042–$1,059
±0.8%
Wed 08-26
$1,040–$1,061
±1.0%
Thu 08-27
$1,039–$1,062
±1.1%
Fri 08-28
$1,037–$1,064
±1.2%
Mon 08-31
$1,036–$1,065
±1.4%
Tue 09-01
$1,035–$1,066
±1.5%
Where the price very likely lands — direction deliberately not stated, because no statistical rule tested could call it. The band assumes recent volatility persists; sized so roughly 4 in 5 outcomes fall inside, and measured at 82% over 524 past windows.
Published ▲ 0.40% over 7 days from the last actual close ($1,050, 08-21). This is the figure the accuracy record scores.
Scenario analysis
| Scenario | Probability | 7-day endpoint | Key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 35% | $1,019 (-2.96%) | Overbought RSI triggers long liquidation and profit-taking on weak crude |
| base | 35% | $1,047 (-0.30%) | Consolidation near 52-week highs with demand support but technical exhaustion |
| bull | 30% | $1,082 (+3.04%) | B50 demand and El Niño supply fears overwhelm profit-taking |
Top 10 reasons for this outlook
- 1▼RSI 78 / overbought technicals — Price above upper Bollinger Band with RSI 78 signals reversal risk within 3-5 days; profit-taking already visible in 8/24 headlines.
- 2▲BOPO spread $314/MT — Palm heavily discounted vs soybean oil, strong demand-switching support for palm.
- 3▲B50 & Indonesia export policy — Indonesia B50 phasing absorbs ~3-4M t/yr; export levy revenue projected to rise 31%, supporting medium-term demand.
- 4▼MPOB July stocks ample — Closing stocks 61% above 5-yr avg, stocks-to-use 12.5% — ample, bearish.
- 5▼Peak production season — Jul-Oct is high-output period; seasonal pressure persists despite August historically averaging +0.7%.
- 6▲El Niño ONI +1.4 — Strengthening El Niño with dry Kalimantan/Sarawak near-term creates lagged yield risk and supply tightening anticipation.
- 7▼Weak crude oil — Brent crude -3.5% 7d, and Monday CPO fell on weaker crude oil, dampening biodiesel margin sentiment.
- 8▼Weak Indonesian rupiah / pricing battle — USD/IDR 17691 and Indonesia's commodity exchange launch challenge Malaysian pricing, potentially boosting Indonesian export competitiveness.
- 9▼Crowded speculative long in soyoil — CFTC managed-money net long at 82th percentile, vulnerable to long liquidation across veg-oil complex.
- 10▲India festival demand window — Diwali buying window opens in ~26 days; India imports strong for festival season, providing demand flow despite historically neutral festival effect.
News scanned (10)
- Pungutan Ekspor Sawit Diproyeksi Tembus Rp41,22 Triliun, B50 Dorong Percepatan PSR - sawitsetara.co — sawitsetara.co, 2026-08-24
- Mandatori Biodiesel Makin Kuat Jaga Harga TBS Petani Sawit - METRORIAU.COM — METRORIAU.COM, 2026-08-24
- Sawit Makin Strategis untuk Kedaulatan Energi dan Ekonomi Nasional - olenka.id — olenka.id, 2026-08-24
- Palm oil prices fell in Malaysia on Monday - UkrAgroConsult — UkrAgroConsult, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia expects palm oil export levy revenue to rise 31% - UkrAgroConsult — UkrAgroConsult, 2026-08-24
- Indonesian Rupiah Declines Despite High Rates and Weaker US Dollar - CryptoRank — CryptoRank, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia takes on Malaysia in battle over palm oil pricing - South China Morning Post — South China Morning Post, 2026-08-24
- CPO Futures End Lower On Profit-taking, Weaker Crude Oil - BernamaBiz — BernamaBiz, 2026-08-24
- Indonesia Launches National Commodity Exchange, Challenging Malaysia's Palm Oil Pricing Dominance - finance.biggo.com — finance.biggo.com, 2026-08-24
- Penerimaan Pungutan Ekspor Sawit Diproyeksi Rp 41,22 Triliun Tahun Ini - Ikatan Konsultan Pajak Indonesia — Ikatan Konsultan Pajak Indonesia, 2026-08-23
7-day outlook: an AI reading of live market signals, shrunk toward the last traded price by the weight below — fundamentals (MPOB stocks, production, exports, stocks-to-use), technicals (RSI, MACD, Bollinger), Indonesia policy (Kemendag levy, mandates), substitute oils (BOPO spread), climate, weather, currencies, energy, and news. The model's view is published in full — no share of it is held back toward the last traded price.. Anchored on the 2026-08-21 close, 4 days old (MPOB publishes at D+1, not at weekends, and can run later still); the market may already have moved without us. Refreshed every 6 hours. An estimate, not a quote. DERIVED LINE: this is the Malaysian outlook rescaled by the ratio of the Kemendag Indonesian reference price (2026-08-01) to the Malaysian close on that date. It cannot diverge from the Malaysian path, and it does not model Indonesia-specific supply, demand or policy. Treat it as an indicative translation, not an independent Indonesian forecast.
Experimental estimate — not a quote, not a guarantee, not investment advice. This 7-day outlook is regenerated every 6 hours from recent price statistics, seasonality, the El Niño/La Niña state, live news headlines, and AI analysis of palm-oil market drivers. Actual prices will differ. Do your own due diligence before trading.
Not comparable to the 30-day range. The 30-day range published alongside this outlook is a different model measuring a different thing over a different horizon. Neither one’s accuracy implies anything about the other’s, and their numbers should never be read as rivals — this outlook publishes a path, the range deliberately publishes no path at all.
Indicative line derived from official Malaysian (MPOB) and Indonesian (Kemendag) reference data. EUR/GBP/IDR views converted at daily exchange rates, not separate local-market prices. Full data credits.
Global crude palm oil benchmark
World Bank global CPO reference index in USD/tonne, with currency-converted views.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet) USD/MT global benchmark. Full data credits.
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