Forecast · Accuracy

Forecast Scorecard

How well does the POE 7-day outlook predict CPO price direction and magnitude? Scored automatically each day when actual prices become available.

This scorecard measures the 7-day outlook only. Where a figure below says 30d, that means it was scored over the last 30 days of history — not that it forecasts 30 days ahead. The 30-day range published on the price pages is a separate model with its own measure (how often the range contained the price), and nothing on this page describes it or predicts how it will perform.

Direction accuracy (7d)

70%

of forecasts called direction correctly

Direction accuracy (14d)

52%

rolling 14-day window

Direction accuracy (30d)

49%

rolling 30-day window

Independent forecasts

distinct anchors in 30d (15,215 raw points)

Skill vs no-change

-14%

worse than assuming no change

No-change MAE (30d)

$10.63

the benchmark our MAE must beat

Large-move accuracy

75%

direction called on 28 moves over 1σ

AI weight

100%

fixed default — awaiting scored history

Statistical weight

drift + seasonality baseline

MAE (7d)

$31.49

average $/MT error

MAE (14d)

$17.85

average $/MT error

MAE (30d)

$12.14

average $/MT error

Daily breakdown

Date	Direction hit rate	MAE ($/MT)	Forecasts scored
2026-08-21	67%	$45.00	6
2026-08-20	83%	$37.95	6
2026-08-19	67%	$23.08	6
2026-08-18	50%	$19.92	6
2026-08-17	50%	$6.16	6
2026-08-14	67%	$5.26	6
2026-08-13	33%	$6.43	6
2026-08-12	33%	$7.13	6
2026-08-11	20%	$8.09	5
2026-08-10	0%	$12.64	5
2026-08-07	40%	$5.74	5
2026-08-06	20%	$6.50	5
2026-08-05	20%	$8.99	5
2026-08-04	80%	$4.21	5
2026-08-03	83%	$4.18	6
2026-07-30	67%	$5.01	6
2026-07-29	50%	$5.94	6
2026-07-28	50%	$6.52	6
2026-07-27	33%	$7.50	6
2026-07-24	67%	$22.54	6
2026-07-23	50%	$5.44	6
2026-07-22	33%	$6.06	6
2026-07-21	17%	$7.56	6
2026-07-20	17%	$7.91	6
2026-07-17	33%	$6.80	6
2026-07-16	0%	$10.23	6
2026-07-15	33%	$10.23	6
2026-07-14	33%	$11.41	6
2026-07-13	50%	$8.61	6
2026-07-10	40%	$10.86	5

Accuracy is measured by comparing each forecast point against the actual Malaysia CPO close (MPOB daily in MYR, converted to USD). Direction hit = did the forecast correctly predict whether the price would move up or down from the anchor? MAE = mean absolute error in $/MT. Past accuracy does not guarantee future performance. This is an experimental model, not investment advice.

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